Don't Expect Quick 4K TV Adoption
It will take more than a higher-resolution picture for the average consumer to buy a 4K television, and retailers should not expect volume sales for at least another three years.
That was the consensus among several consumer electronics experts during a panel at this week's CEA Industry Forum on "Five Technology Trends To Watch." The other trends that will impact CE retailers include 3D printing, the evolution of audio and the education revolution (see more on these at Dealerscope.com).
"Resolution isn't enough to win consumers over," said Scott Steinberg, CEO of TechSavvy Global, a management consulting and market research firm, and author of several books, including "The Crowd Funding Bible" and "The Modern Parent's Guide." "We're talking about a package of features, not one thing."
Instead, new apps, more high-resolution content over faster broadband, and the TV's growing role as a communications tool and digital hub will help drive 4K sales in the future, he said, adding that "upconversion " of 2K resolution to 4K will act as the "Trojan Horse" to getting the sets into the homes of average consumers.
Adoption of 4K TVs will follow an "S" curve, similar to the adoption of most new technologies, said Shawn Dubravac, CEA's chief economist and senior director of research.
"Consumer adoption will be very low for several years," he said, adding that prices and available content will be several of the big factors impacting sales. "We can't have high expectations" for big volume out of the gate.
The panelists agreed, though, that 4K TVs have a more compelling sales proposition than 3D did, mainly because so much more content can be viewed in higher resolution than in 3D.
"I don't think there's much of a reason for 3D, it's just not compelling," said Rachel Metz, IT editor at Technology Review, adding that consumers can immediately see the benefits of higher-resolution content.